The French real estate market went through an unprecedented phase in 2024: the third consecutive year of declining sales, a decrease in credit rates that began in the second half, and the implementation of new energy regulations that alter property owners’ decisions. Measuring these movements requires cross-referencing transaction volumes, price trends, and regulatory constraints.
Real Estate Transactions in 2024: The Low Point Reached After Three Years of Decline
According to data from the Conseil supérieur du notariat and MeilleursAgents, the market recorded approximately 775,000 transactions in 2024, representing an 11% contraction compared to the 869,000 sales recorded in 2023. Compared to the peak in 2021, the cumulative decline reaches 36%.
The geography of the decline is not uniform. The first half extended the negative trend from 2023, while the second half showed a stabilization of volumes, hinting at a low plateau.
To track these developments over the months, the news from Partimmobilier compiles key data as they are published.
Mortgage Rates and Prices: Two Diverging Trends
The table below summarizes the main variations observed in market indicators between the end of 2023 and the end of 2024.
| Indicator | End 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Average interest rate (mortgage) | 3.83% (October 2024, Banque de France) | Decreasing over the year |
| Old property prices (annual change) | Stabilization | Slowing decline |
| Transactions (existing homes) | ~775,000 | -11% year-on-year |
The European Central Bank implemented several cuts to its key rates throughout 2024. This easing restored purchasing power to borrowers, particularly in the second quarter.
On the price side, after a 4% decrease recorded in 2023 (annual average according to the Conseil supérieur du notariat), old property prices stabilized in 2024. The correction that began the previous year slowed down, without reversing in most areas. The new property market, however, has not followed the same trajectory and remains under pressure.
A Political Calendar That Impacted Activity
The dissolution of the National Assembly in the spring caused a temporary freeze on purchase projects. The Paris Olympic Games extended this pause in the affected metropolitan areas.
The appointment of a Prime Minister in September reignited the dynamic, driven by the last four months of the year.
Energy Performance Certificate (DPE) and Energy Regulations: What Changes for Property Owners
Beyond volumes and prices, 2024 marked a regulatory turning point whose effects are ongoing. Two measures deserve particular attention.
- Adjustment of the DPE for small units: since July 1, 2024, energy label thresholds have been recalculated for homes of 40 m² or less, according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition. This correction reclassifies certain small homes that were penalized by the previous calculation method, directly affecting their rental value and their ability to be rented out.
- Ban on renting G-rated homes: starting January 1, 2025, G-rated homes in metropolitan France no longer meet the energy decency criteria. The affected leases can no longer be renewed without renovation work, a constraint that weighs on investment decisions starting in 2024.
- Implementation of the advance mutation loan (PAR+): the implementing texts have been operational since September 1, 2024. This scheme finances energy renovation work with deferred repayment, complementing existing aids (MaPrimeRénov’) without replacing traditional acquisition credit.
These three combined measures create pressure on landlords of energy-inefficient properties, particularly in tourist areas where the old stock is often energy-intensive.
Impact on Investment Decisions
A G or F-rated property sees its resale value affected by the cost of necessary renovations. Buyers now incorporate the DPE as a price negotiation criterion, contributing to the price divergence between renovated homes and those needing renovation. This phenomenon, marginal a few years ago, now structures transactions in the old property market.
New Real Estate Market vs. Old: Decoupled Dynamics in 2024
Where the old market begins to stabilize, the new market remains in difficulty. Housing starts continue to decline, and developers face persistently high construction costs. The Fnaim also reported a concerning situation regarding employment and business failures in the sector.
This decoupling between new and old represents a structural imbalance. The demand for new housing, supported by tax incentives (including the announced end of the Pinel scheme), is not enough to offset the rising production costs. Buyers shifting to the old market are fueling price stabilization in this segment, while leaving the new market without sufficient growth support.
The last quarter of 2024 showed signs of recovery in sales volumes in the old market, driven by falling rates and the return of confidence after political uncertainties. The trajectory for 2025 will largely depend on the continuation of monetary easing and the ability of the new market to regain a production pace compatible with housing needs in France.
